Brazil’s central bank kept its easing cycle intact after cutting the Selic rate 25 basis points to 13.75% in September, with the statement leaving room for further adjustment at the November meeting. Cooling economic activity, evidenced by softer growth indicators, has supported trader expectations for another 25-basis-point reduction, aligning with the Focus survey’s revised year-end 2026 median forecast of 13.50%. September IPCA-15 inflation rose 0.70% month-over-month to a 4.47% twelve-month rate, remaining above the 3% target midpoint yet consistent with gradual convergence in the policy horizon. Market-implied probabilities reflect this data-dependent path while pricing in limited scope for larger moves or reversals given persistent upside inflation risks.