Tyson Fury holds a 62.5% implied probability in the December 11, 2026, heavyweight matchup at Principality Stadium in Cardiff, driven by his size, reach, and superior ringcraft against Anthony Joshua. Fury, 38 and 36-2-1, returned from retirement with a unanimous decision over Arslanbek Makhmudov in April and a seventh-round stoppage of Mariusz Wach in July, gaining valuable rounds after two prior losses to Oleksandr Usyk. Joshua, 37 and 30-4, secured stoppage wins over Jake Paul and Kristian Prenga but was dropped twice early in the latter bout, highlighting defensive concerns. Fury’s jab, movement, and ability to control distance align with trader consensus favoring his technical edge, while Joshua’s power creates realistic late-round upset potential in a closely contested stylistic clash.