Lula holds a commanding position in Bahia for first place in the October 4 first round, backed by consistent regional strength in the Northeast and recent state-specific polling. A September 24 Quaest survey showed the incumbent at 58% against 23% for Flavio Bolsonaro, with all other listed candidates in single digits or lower, alongside an 85% share of voters describing their choice as firm. This reflects longstanding PT organizational presence and voter alignment in the state. National polarization and Lula’s approval trends have not eroded the gap in Bahia. Late developments such as shifts in undecided voters, turnout fluctuations, or unforeseen events could still alter the outcome before election day, though current evidence indicates limited scope for reversal.