Lula maintains a commanding lead in Bahia for first place in the October 2026 presidential first round, consistent with the state's longstanding PT alignment and his 72% runoff share there in 2022. Recent Quaest polling conducted September 20-23 shows him at 58%, up from 50% in late August, with Flávio Bolsonaro at 23% and all other listed candidates in single digits or lower. High voter consolidation, with 85% describing their choice as definitive, reinforces this positioning ahead of the October 4 vote. While national surveys indicate a tighter contest overall, Bahia-specific trends reflect entrenched regional support. Potential shifts could arise from turnout changes, public security concerns amid rising violence, or late campaign developments altering voter priorities.