Lula maintains a commanding lead in Ceará for first place in the October 4 first round, with recent Quaest and Datafolha surveys showing 52-59% support against 21-23% for Flávio Bolsonaro and single-digit or lower shares for all others. This positioning stems from sustained high approval of the incumbent president's administration at 64% in the state, combined with longstanding voter alignment in the Northeast for PT candidates and associated social policies. Most respondents describe their choice as definitive, limiting late movement. While a major scandal, health development, or unexpected surge by a regional figure could theoretically narrow the gap before election day, current polling trends and the short remaining timeline point to structural barriers for challengers.