Lula maintains a commanding position in Ceará voter intentions for first place in the October 4 first round, backed by recent Quaest polling showing 55% support against 23% for Flávio Bolsonaro and single-digit figures for candidates such as Augusto Cury and Renan Santos. The president’s established regional base in the Northeast, combined with his recent state visit and government approval ratings near 64%, reinforces trader consensus reflected in the market pricing. Flávio Bolsonaro’s modest recent gains during local campaign stops have narrowed the gap slightly from prior surveys but have not altered the overall hierarchy. Late shifts remain possible if undecided voters or turnout patterns change sharply in the final days, though current polling trends and structural advantages continue to anchor expectations of a decisive regional outcome.