Flávio Bolsonaro leads with strong implied probability in the Federal District first-round market, reflecting consistent local polling advantages over Lula and other contenders. Recent surveys from Datafolha, Quaest, and Correio/Opinião in September show the PL senator ahead in Brasília voter intentions, often by margins of 7–8 points, amid consolidated right-leaning support in the capital ahead of the October 4 vote. National trends remain tighter between the PT incumbent and the Liberal Party candidate, but Distrito Federal preferences favor Bolsonaro's ticket, bolstered by his father's endorsement and party infrastructure. Lower probabilities for figures like Ronaldo Caiado, Augusto Cury, and Renan Santos align with their single-digit shares in the same polls, while Lula trails locally despite competitive national positioning. The election timeline leaves limited room for late shifts before first-round resolution.