Recent state-level polling in Goiás shows Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) leading or in a technical tie for first place in the presidential first round, with the latest Quaest survey (Sept. 20–23) placing him at 33% against Lula (PT) at 27% and Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) at 23%. This shift from earlier August results, where Caiado held a narrow edge, reflects growing trader consensus around Bolsonaro’s stronger consolidation of right-leaning and agribusiness support in the state. Caiado’s decision to leave the governorship to run nationally has coincided with his declining local numbers, while smaller candidates including Augusto Cury and Renan Santos remain marginal. The first-round vote is scheduled for October 4, with Goiás serving as a key test of conservative momentum ahead of any potential runoff.