Lula holds the lead in Minas Gerais first-round presidential polling at 35-49% across recent surveys, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro in the 30-43% range, reflecting the state’s large electorate and historical polarization between PT and PL-aligned voters. Flávio’s gains in Atlas/Estadão and Quaest tracking have narrowed gaps but left Lula numerically ahead, while Romeu Zema, Ronaldo Caiado, Augusto Cury, and Renan Santos register low single digits or less. The market’s 59% on Lula versus 38.5% on Flávio and flat pricing near 50% for most others captures trader views of this divide, with separation likely hinging on late-campaign turnout in key regions, coalition endorsements, or shifts in undecided voters before the October 2026 vote.