Recent polling in Paraná shows Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) maintaining double-digit leads in first-round simulations for the October 2026 presidential election, with shares of 40-54% against Lula (PT) at 24-34% and all other listed candidates in single digits or lower. Multiple September surveys from Quaest, Real Time Big Data, and AtlasIntel confirm this pattern in the conservative southern state, where right-wing consolidation and higher rejection of the incumbent have reinforced the frontrunner's position. Traders reflect this evidence in the 97.3% implied probability. Late developments such as vote fragmentation among smaller right-wing names or shifts in undecided voters (currently 13-25%) could still alter the outcome before election day.