Flavio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding position in trader expectations for first place in Rio Grande do Sul during the October 2026 first round, reflecting consistent regional polling advantages. Recent surveys, including Quaest and AtlasIntel from September 2026, show him leading or tied with Lula among gaúcho voters, often by margins of 3–5 points in first-round scenarios, supported by the state’s conservative leanings and strong agronegócio backing. Campaign activity in the region, including meetings with agricultural leaders and pledges on fiscal adjustments and rural insurance, has reinforced this edge. National polling shows tighter national races, but RS-specific data sustains the frontrunner status. Late shifts from economic conditions, turnout variations, or unforeseen candidate developments remain the primary variables that could narrow this lead before election day.