Recent Quaest polling in Rondônia shows Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) at 53% in the first-round presidential contest, far ahead of Lula at 19% and other registered candidates in single digits. This positioning aligns with the state's consistent preference for bolsonarista candidates, including Jair Bolsonaro's 70.6% margin there in 2022, and local surveys indicating 69% disapproval of the current federal administration. The Liberal Party ticket benefits from organized regional support ahead of the October 4 first round, with 85% of voters in the latest state survey describing their preference as firm. Other contenders, including Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos, register minimal shares. A sudden consolidation of centrist or left-leaning votes or an unforeseen late development could narrow the gap, though current evidence points to limited volatility in the final days.