Flavio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead in Roraima for first place in the October 4 first round, backed by consistent state-level polling showing him at 52-62 percent against Lula’s 17-18 percent. The senator’s position stems from strong Liberal Party (PL) organization in the northern state, reinforced by a June 2026 supplementary gubernatorial victory for PL ally Arthur Henrique and alignment with voters prioritizing security and economic issues. National surveys indicate a tight contest overall, yet Roraima’s electorate has shown sustained preference for the Bolsonaro family ticket. Late developments that could narrow the margin include shifts among undecided voters, turnout changes, or unexpected legal or campaign events before election day.