Santa Catarina’s conservative electorate has long favored candidates aligned with Jair Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party, giving his son Flávio a commanding position in first-round polling for the October 4 presidential vote. Recent surveys, including Quaest and Real Time Big Data, show Flávio at 50-52 percent against Lula’s 23-26 percent, with remaining support scattered among lower-polling names such as Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, and Ronaldo Caiado. This regional strength in the South, reinforced by the party’s control of the state governorship and Senate candidacies, underpins trader consensus at 97.3 percent. Late shifts among the roughly 11 percent undecided or a surge by another right-leaning contender remain the principal variables that could narrow the gap before election day.