Flávio Bolsonaro secured 64.56% of valid votes in Acre during the October 4 first round, compared with 28.73% for incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, advancing both to the October 25 runoff. This outcome aligns with pre-election polling showing double-digit leads for the PL candidate and builds on Jair Bolsonaro’s 62.5% share in the state during 2022. Acre’s pattern of strong support for right-leaning candidates, including victories in 19 of 22 municipalities, has reinforced trader expectations that Flávio will finish first locally. A reversal would require an unprecedented swing in voter preferences or turnout over the next three weeks, factors traders currently price as low-probability events.