Iliana Iotova, the incumbent who assumed the presidency in January 2026 after Rumen Radev’s resignation, holds an 89% market-implied probability of winning the first round on October 25. Recent candidate registrations and the September 23 ballot draw confirmed her as the frontrunner backed by BSP–OL, Progressive Bulgaria, and allied groups, with polls showing her support near or above 45% against fragmented opposition. Andrey Gyurov, the former caretaker prime minister running with PP–DB support, trails at 5.9% amid lower visibility. Most other registered candidates remain below 1%, reflecting limited polling traction and structural barriers in Bulgaria’s two-round system. Trader consensus aligns with her incumbency advantage and broad cross-party endorsements ahead of the official campaign launch.