Scott Hamilton leads the Cambridge, Ontario mayoral market at 59.5% implied probability as the early-filing Ward 7 councillor with a record of council motions on housing, transit, and community issues. Incumbent Jan Liggett sits at 25% while seeking a second term, following a June 2026 Pride event controversy that prompted public calls for her resignation. The field narrowed after Brian Kennedy and Shahzada Khan withdrew in August, leaving certified contenders including Ryan Bolender, whose unauthorized pothole repair drew an ongoing city investigation unlikely to conclude before the October 26 vote. Multiple lower-probability candidates and the absence of public polling keep the race fragmented, with traders pricing Hamilton’s organizational head start and local profile as the dominant factors ahead of election day.