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Politics·Taxes

Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?

icon for Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?
Politics·Taxes

Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

17% chance
Polymarket

$71,078 Vol.

17% chance
Polymarket

$71,078 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions enacted in the 2025 "Big Beautiful Bill" is fully repealed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%. Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. **Multiple failed legislative efforts to restore full wagering loss deductions under IRC Section 165(d) have kept the 90% cap in place.** Enacted as part of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed in July 2025, the limit applies to tax years beginning after December 31, 2025, and has withstood repeated repeal attempts through mid-2026. Bills such as the FAIR BET Act (H.R. 4304), FULL HOUSE Act (H.R. 6985), and WAGER Act attracted bipartisan cosponsors from gaming-state lawmakers and industry backing, including the American Gaming Association. However, amendments to attach a fix to appropriations or spending measures were blocked by the House Rules Committee in January and February 2026. IRS proposed regulations issued in April 2026 implemented the cap, and a July 2026 public hearing featured stakeholder criticism but produced no immediate congressional action. With the provision generating roughly $1 billion in revenue over a decade and no standalone or vehicle-based repeal advancing by August 2026, trader pricing reflects the low likelihood of passage before 2027. Scheduled legislative activity and committee bottlenecks remain the primary near-term constraints.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions enacted in the 2025 "Big Beautiful Bill" is fully repealed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%.

Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$71,078
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions enacted in the 2025 "Big Beautiful Bill" is fully repealed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%. Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions enacted in the 2025 "Big Beautiful Bill" is fully repealed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%. Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. **Multiple failed legislative efforts to restore full wagering loss deductions under IRC Section 165(d) have kept the 90% cap in place.** Enacted as part of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed in July 2025, the limit applies to tax years beginning after December 31, 2025, and has withstood repeated repeal attempts through mid-2026. Bills such as the FAIR BET Act (H.R. 4304), FULL HOUSE Act (H.R. 6985), and WAGER Act attracted bipartisan cosponsors from gaming-state lawmakers and industry backing, including the American Gaming Association. However, amendments to attach a fix to appropriations or spending measures were blocked by the House Rules Committee in January and February 2026. IRS proposed regulations issued in April 2026 implemented the cap, and a July 2026 public hearing featured stakeholder criticism but produced no immediate congressional action. With the provision generating roughly $1 billion in revenue over a decade and no standalone or vehicle-based repeal advancing by August 2026, trader pricing reflects the low likelihood of passage before 2027. Scheduled legislative activity and committee bottlenecks remain the primary near-term constraints.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions enacted in the 2025 "Big Beautiful Bill" is fully repealed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%.

Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$71,078
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions enacted in the 2025 "Big Beautiful Bill" is fully repealed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%. Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 17% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 17¢, the market collectively assigns a 17% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?" has generated $71.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?" is 17% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 17% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.