President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act earlier in 2026 permanently extended most 2017 individual tax provisions yet left long-term capital gains rates unchanged at 0/15/20 percent. Recent administration discussions of indexing gains to inflation or expanding the primary-residence exclusion remain preliminary ideas without introduced legislation or committee action. With Congress facing a compressed calendar before the November midterms, significant revenue costs, and competing priorities such as affordability measures and disaster-relief extensions, lawmakers have shown little momentum for rate cuts. Traders therefore assign an 84.5 percent probability that no reduction will occur before 2027, reflecting the absence of concrete legislative progress amid fiscal constraints and electoral timing.