The overwhelming trader consensus that President Trump will remain in office through May 31 reflects the absence of any active impeachment proceedings in the House, Senate conviction processes, or formal invocations of the 25th Amendment. With only two weeks remaining in the resolution window, no legislative votes, cabinet actions, or public statements from senior officials indicate an imminent vacancy or incapacity. Historical patterns show that presidential removals outside of elections require sustained bipartisan support and extended timelines, neither of which is present. While low-probability scenarios such as a sudden health crisis or unanticipated resignation could still shift the outcome, current institutional stability and lack of triggering events support the market's assessment of continuity.