The tightly bunched probabilities for the CONCACAF Nations League 2026-27 winner reflect the Swiss-system group stage launching September 23 across League A, where pre-seeded sides Mexico, the United States, Canada, and Panama receive direct quarterfinal entry based on Concacaf rankings. Mexico’s 53.5% implied probability draws from its top ranking retention after the 2026 World Cup and prior title win, yet the format grants realistic advancement paths to Group A contenders such as the Dominican Republic and Haiti or Group B sides like Jamaica and Honduras. With four quarterfinal spots at stake and finals set for March 2027, trader consensus prices the field competitively, underscoring the league’s depth and the limited head-to-head data available before the opening window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMexico 49%
United States 24%
Canada 16%
Panama 8%
Mexico
49%
United States
24%
Canada
16%
Panama
8%
Haiti
6%
Dominican Republic
4%
Suriname
3%
Guatemala
3%
Nicaragua
3%
Jamaica
3%
Trinidad and Tobago
3%
Martinique
3%
El Salvador
2%
Curacao
1%
Costa Rica
1%
Honduras
<1%
Mexico 49%
United States 24%
Canada 16%
Panama 8%
Mexico
49%
United States
24%
Canada
16%
Panama
8%
Haiti
6%
Dominican Republic
4%
Suriname
3%
Guatemala
3%
Nicaragua
3%
Jamaica
3%
Trinidad and Tobago
3%
Martinique
3%
El Salvador
2%
Curacao
1%
Costa Rica
1%
Honduras
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026-27 CONCACAF Nations League per the rules of CONCACAF (e.g., they are eliminated), the corresponding market will resolve to "No".
If the 2026-27 CONCACAF Nations League is cancelled, postponed after April 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source will be official information from CONCACAF; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 11:47 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026-27 CONCACAF Nations League per the rules of CONCACAF (e.g., they are eliminated), the corresponding market will resolve to "No".
If the 2026-27 CONCACAF Nations League is cancelled, postponed after April 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source will be official information from CONCACAF; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The tightly bunched probabilities for the CONCACAF Nations League 2026-27 winner reflect the Swiss-system group stage launching September 23 across League A, where pre-seeded sides Mexico, the United States, Canada, and Panama receive direct quarterfinal entry based on Concacaf rankings. Mexico’s 53.5% implied probability draws from its top ranking retention after the 2026 World Cup and prior title win, yet the format grants realistic advancement paths to Group A contenders such as the Dominican Republic and Haiti or Group B sides like Jamaica and Honduras. With four quarterfinal spots at stake and finals set for March 2027, trader consensus prices the field competitively, underscoring the league’s depth and the limited head-to-head data available before the opening window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated

Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions