Stronger-than-expected August core CPI at 0.3% month-over-month has lifted consensus forecasts for the Fed’s preferred Core PCE measure to cluster around 0.25–0.30%, positioning the 0.3% outcome as the clear market leader at 68.5% implied probability. July’s 0.2% reading and firmer PPI components relevant to PCE have reinforced this view, while BEA methodology revisions scheduled with the September 30 release introduce downside risk mainly to year-over-year figures rather than the near-term monthly print. The 30% probability on 0.2% reflects lingering uncertainty over those adjustments and any residual softening in services prices.