Recent hotter-than-expected August core CPI at 0.3% month-over-month has prompted analysts to lift forecasts for the August core PCE print to 0.3%, aligning with the 69% market-implied probability for that outcome. July core PCE rose 0.2% month-over-month and held at 3.3% year-over-year, consistent with prior months and above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Persistent services inflation and the recent CPI upside have reinforced trader expectations that August core PCE will match or exceed the 0.2% July pace, while the modest 29.5% odds on 0.2% reflect residual uncertainty ahead of the September 30 release. The data will inform near-term monetary policy views amid sticky underlying price pressures.