Recent July core PCE held steady at 3.3% year-over-year, aligning with forecasts and underscoring persistent services-driven inflation above the Fed’s 2% target. With the August reading due September 30, trader-implied odds cluster tightly around 3.3% and 3.4%, each at 28.5%, as hotter-than-expected August CPI and PPI prints have raised the risk of modest upside in the Fed-preferred gauge. Monthly core PCE momentum near 0.2% and revisions to consumer spending data reinforce the view that disinflation has stalled, while still-elevated shelter and core services components limit downside scenarios. Markets price these probabilities as aggregated trader consensus reflecting real capital at risk ahead of the BEA release.