Frédéric Poulin of the Parti conservateur du Québec leads trader consensus at 68% due to recent provincial polling trends showing PCQ gains in rural and Quebec City-area ridings, including Côte-du-Sud. Late-September projections from aggregators such as Qc125 and Vote-Scope placed Poulin ahead with roughly 30-33% support in a tight three-way contest against PQ candidate Valérie Hamel and incumbent CAQ MNA Mathieu Rivest, whose party has fallen sharply province-wide. Poulin’s profile as a local dairy producer and former mayor aligns with voter priorities on agriculture, regional services, and regulatory relief. Advance polls on September 27-28 confirmed turnout patterns ahead of the October 5 general election, with limited movement expected to alter the current implied probabilities before results finalize.