The DFB-Pokal 2026-27 season is in its early knockout stages, with first-round matches completed and second-round draws shaping the path forward, leaving a wide-open field where many clubs trade near 50% implied probability. This tight clustering reflects the single-elimination format's inherent volatility, where recent form, squad depth, and fixture congestion can quickly alter trajectories before deeper rounds. Bundesliga teams such as Bayern Munich, RB Leipzig, and Bayer Leverkusen sit lower around 25-35%, consistent with historical cup success but offset by the potential for upsets from 2. Bundesliga or lower sides like Dynamo Dresden, FC St. Pauli, or SC Paderborn. No major injuries or standout momentum shifts have emerged in the past month to consolidate favorites, preserving competitive balance as traders monitor lineup news and travel factors ahead of October fixtures.