The ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has driven the market-implied odds strongly toward “No,” with no confirmed spread to fresh nations in recent weeks. Uganda’s limited imported cases ended in July after the country declared the outbreak over following 42 days without new transmissions, while France’s single imported case from June has long since cleared monitoring. As of late September, the epidemic remains concentrated across seven DRC provinces, with daily case counts declining in key areas like Ituri and no verified reports of new-country detections amid stepped-up border screening and contact tracing. With October 1 just days away, the absence of fresh cross-border confirmations or credible rumors of imminent announcements reinforces trader consensus around containment within existing borders.