**The 96.9% market-implied probability for “No” on an Ebola pandemic in 2026 reflects the outbreak’s primarily regional character and sustained low global risk assessments.** The Bundibugyo virus (BDBV) outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in May 2026, has produced roughly 7,000–8,000 confirmed cases and ~3,800 deaths by mid-to-late September—making it the second-largest Ebola event on record—yet remains concentrated in eastern DRC provinces with only limited, contained transmission in Uganda and isolated imported cases elsewhere. Official WHO and CDC evaluations continue to rate regional and global risk as low, citing effective border screening, absence of sustained community transmission outside Africa, and the virus’s transmission dynamics, which differ from airborne pathogens. Historical data show intercontinental spread has been rare even in larger outbreaks. A realistic scenario that could shift odds would require substantial further geographic expansion across continents prompting an explicit WHO pandemic characterization, though current containment trends and response scaling make this unlikely before year-end.