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icon for Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a comedy series

Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a comedy series

icon for Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a comedy series

Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a comedy series

Rob Reiner – “The Bear” 100.0%

Michael J. Fox – “Shrinking” <1%

Brett Goldstein – “Shrinking” <1%

Hamish Linklater – “Widow’s Bay” <1%

Polymarket

$71,863 Vol.

Rob Reiner – “The Bear” 100.0%

Michael J. Fox – “Shrinking” <1%

Brett Goldstein – “Shrinking” <1%

Hamish Linklater – “Widow’s Bay” <1%

Polymarket

$71,863 Vol.

Michael J. Fox – “Shrinking”

$12,821 Vol.

No

Brett Goldstein – “Shrinking”

$3,527 Vol.

No

Hamish Linklater – “Widow’s Bay”

$6,866 Vol.

No

Christopher McDonald – “Hacks”

$9,561 Vol.

No

Rob Reiner – “The Bear”

$34,311 Vol.

Yes

Connor Storrie – “Saturday Night Live”

$4,777 Vol.

No

The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding guest actor in a comedy series”. If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Rob Reiner’s posthumous Emmy victory for his three-episode arc as restaurant consultant Albert on FX’s The Bear reflects overwhelming trader consensus driven by the emotional weight of his December 2025 death alongside his wife, combined with industry respect for the veteran performer’s final major role and his long gap since prior acting wins. The nomination itself drew widespread attention as a tribute, and voters in the Television Academy often favor such legacy stories when performances are solid, especially in guest categories where sentiment can sway ballots. Other nominees, including Michael J. Fox and Brett Goldstein from Shrinking, faced stiffer competition from this narrative momentum despite their own strong reviews. An upset would have required a late surge in guild or critics’ support for a rival or a surprising shift in voter priorities away from the tribute angle, though the market’s 100% pricing on Reiner showed little room for such scenarios once the Creative Arts ceremony approached.

The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California

This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding guest actor in a comedy series”.

If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding guest actor in a comedy series”. If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$71,863
End Date
Sep 14, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 8:33 PM ET

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding guest actor in a comedy series”. If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Rob Reiner’s posthumous Emmy victory for his three-episode arc as restaurant consultant Albert on FX’s The Bear reflects overwhelming trader consensus driven by the emotional weight of his December 2025 death alongside his wife, combined with industry respect for the veteran performer’s final major role and his long gap since prior acting wins. The nomination itself drew widespread attention as a tribute, and voters in the Television Academy often favor such legacy stories when performances are solid, especially in guest categories where sentiment can sway ballots. Other nominees, including Michael J. Fox and Brett Goldstein from Shrinking, faced stiffer competition from this narrative momentum despite their own strong reviews. An upset would have required a late surge in guild or critics’ support for a rival or a surprising shift in voter priorities away from the tribute angle, though the market’s 100% pricing on Reiner showed little room for such scenarios once the Creative Arts ceremony approached.

The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California

This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding guest actor in a comedy series”.

If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding guest actor in a comedy series”. If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$71,863
End Date
Sep 14, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 8:33 PM ET

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a comedy series" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Rob Reiner – “The Bear”" at 100%, followed by "Michael J. Fox – “Shrinking”" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a comedy series" has generated $71.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 9, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a comedy series," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a comedy series" is "Rob Reiner – “The Bear”" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Michael J. Fox – “Shrinking”" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a comedy series" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.