The Late Show With Stephen Colbert’s dominant 87% implied probability stems from its May 2026 cancellation by CBS, which generated significant industry sympathy and positioned its final season as a farewell campaign. Multiple wins at the Creative Arts Emmys for writing, directing, and technical categories further boosted its momentum in the newly unified Outstanding Variety Series category, now structured as an area award where nominees are judged independently. Traders view this as outweighing the historical Emmy success of competitors like Last Week Tonight With John Oliver and The Daily Show, with the September 14 ceremony serving as the decisive resolution point.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedEmmys 2026: Outstanding variety series
Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series
“The Late Show With Stephen Colbert” 100.0%
“The Daily Show” <1%
“Jimmy Kimmel Live!” <1%
“Last Week Tonight With John Oliver” <1%
$409,895 Vol.
$409,895 Vol.
Sep 14, 2026
“The Daily Show”
No
“Jimmy Kimmel Live!”
No
“Last Week Tonight With John Oliver”
No
“The Late Show With Stephen Colbert”
Yes
“Saturday Night Live”
No
“The Late Show With Stephen Colbert” 100.0%
“The Daily Show” <1%
“Jimmy Kimmel Live!” <1%
“Last Week Tonight With John Oliver” <1%
$409,895 Vol.
$409,895 Vol.
Sep 14, 2026
“The Daily Show”
$42,012 Vol.
No
“Jimmy Kimmel Live!”
$155,029 Vol.
No
“Last Week Tonight With John Oliver”
$56,947 Vol.
No
“The Late Show With Stephen Colbert”
$97,585 Vol.
Yes
“Saturday Night Live”
$58,323 Vol.
No
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Late Show With Stephen Colbert’s dominant 87% implied probability stems from its May 2026 cancellation by CBS, which generated significant industry sympathy and positioned its final season as a farewell campaign. Multiple wins at the Creative Arts Emmys for writing, directing, and technical categories further boosted its momentum in the newly unified Outstanding Variety Series category, now structured as an area award where nominees are judged independently. Traders view this as outweighing the historical Emmy success of competitors like Last Week Tonight With John Oliver and The Daily Show, with the September 14 ceremony serving as the decisive resolution point.
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 9, 2026, 8:40 PM ET
Volume
$409,895End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 8:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Late Show With Stephen Colbert’s dominant 87% implied probability stems from its May 2026 cancellation by CBS, which generated significant industry sympathy and positioned its final season as a farewell campaign. Multiple wins at the Creative Arts Emmys for writing, directing, and technical categories further boosted its momentum in the newly unified Outstanding Variety Series category, now structured as an area award where nominees are judged independently. Traders view this as outweighing the historical Emmy success of competitors like Last Week Tonight With John Oliver and The Daily Show, with the September 14 ceremony serving as the decisive resolution point.
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$409,895End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 8:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
The Late Show With Stephen Colbert’s dominant 87% implied probability stems from its May 2026 cancellation by CBS, which generated significant industry sympathy and positioned its final season as a farewell campaign. Multiple wins at the Creative Arts Emmys for writing, directing, and technical categories further boosted its momentum in the newly unified Outstanding Variety Series category, now structured as an area award where nominees are judged independently. Traders view this as outweighing the historical Emmy success of competitors like Last Week Tonight With John Oliver and The Daily Show, with the September 14 ceremony serving as the decisive resolution point.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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