Recent polling from Paraná Pesquisas shows Lorenzo Pazolini (Republicanos) and incumbent governor Ricardo Ferraço (MDB) in a technical tie for the October 4 first-round vote at 40% and 38.3%, respectively, with Helder Salomão (PT) a distant third. This near-even split, combined with Ferraço’s assumption of office in April after Renato Casagrande’s resignation and Pazolini’s strong record as Vitória mayor, sustains the tight trader pricing around 50% for both. A runoff on October 25 remains the probable path, and further shifts in rejection rates, coalition alignments, or late-campaign momentum could separate the frontrunners before first-round ballots close.