Renato Casagrande (PSB), a former three-term governor of Espírito Santo who stepped down in April 2026 to run, holds a dominant position in the race for first place in the October 4 Senate election. Recent polling, including a late-September Paraná Pesquisas survey, shows him with roughly 50% support in stimulated scenarios, well ahead of competitors such as Fabiano Contarato (PT) and Sergio Meneguelli (PSD). His sustained name recognition, established alliances—including support for Rose de Freitas (MDB) on the second seat—and campaign emphasis on issues like betting regulation and federal infrastructure oversight have reinforced trader consensus on his frontrunner status. The election's proximity leaves limited room for reversal absent major late developments such as turnout shifts or unforeseen events.