Republican control of the White House and Congress after 2024 produced the July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which made many TCJA provisions permanent but left long-term capital gains rates at the existing 0/15/20 percent structure. Proposals floated in 2026 for inflation indexing of basis or larger principal-residence exclusions have remained exploratory, with no reconciliation vehicle, floor action, or committee advancement on broad rate reductions by late September. Competing priorities around digital-asset rules, IRS reforms, and extenders, combined with the compressed post-midterm calendar, have kept legislative momentum low. Traders therefore assign only a slim chance to any qualifying statutory change before December 31, 2026, though a narrow lame-duck package could still alter that assessment if negotiations accelerate.