**Republican control of the White House and Congress has produced discussions but no enacted reduction in federal long-term capital gains tax rates through mid-August 2026.** Rates remain at 0%, 15%, and 20% depending on income, following the 2025 legislation that extended many prior provisions without lowering the preferential rates. Recent proposals—such as indexing gains for inflation, expanding home-sale exclusions, or new exemptions—have surfaced from administration officials and lawmakers ahead of the midterms, yet these remain at the discussion or bill-introduction stage without floor votes or passage. Legislative timelines, competing priorities, and procedural requirements in a divided or narrowly controlled environment make swift enactment unlikely before year-end. Traders therefore assign an 84.5% probability to “No,” reflecting the absence of completed action and the short window remaining in 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated16% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
16% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Republican control of the White House and Congress has produced discussions but no enacted reduction in federal long-term capital gains tax rates through mid-August 2026.** Rates remain at 0%, 15%, and 20% depending on income, following the 2025 legislation that extended many prior provisions without lowering the preferential rates.
Recent proposals—such as indexing gains for inflation, expanding home-sale exclusions, or new exemptions—have surfaced from administration officials and lawmakers ahead of the midterms, yet these remain at the discussion or bill-introduction stage without floor votes or passage. Legislative timelines, competing priorities, and procedural requirements in a divided or narrowly controlled environment make swift enactment unlikely before year-end. Traders therefore assign an 84.5% probability to “No,” reflecting the absence of completed action and the short window remaining in 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ET
Volume
$62End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Republican control of the White House and Congress has produced discussions but no enacted reduction in federal long-term capital gains tax rates through mid-August 2026.** Rates remain at 0%, 15%, and 20% depending on income, following the 2025 legislation that extended many prior provisions without lowering the preferential rates.
Recent proposals—such as indexing gains for inflation, expanding home-sale exclusions, or new exemptions—have surfaced from administration officials and lawmakers ahead of the midterms, yet these remain at the discussion or bill-introduction stage without floor votes or passage. Legislative timelines, competing priorities, and procedural requirements in a divided or narrowly controlled environment make swift enactment unlikely before year-end. Traders therefore assign an 84.5% probability to “No,” reflecting the absence of completed action and the short window remaining in 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$62End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Republican control of the White House and Congress has produced discussions but no enacted reduction in federal long-term capital gains tax rates through mid-August 2026.** Rates remain at 0%, 15%, and 20% depending on income, following the 2025 legislation that extended many prior provisions without lowering the preferential rates. Recent proposals—such as indexing gains for inflation, expanding home-sale exclusions, or new exemptions—have surfaced from administration officials and lawmakers ahead of the midterms, yet these remain at the discussion or bill-introduction stage without floor votes or passage. Legislative timelines, competing priorities, and procedural requirements in a divided or narrowly controlled environment make swift enactment unlikely before year-end. Traders therefore assign an 84.5% probability to “No,” reflecting the absence of completed action and the short window remaining in 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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