Celina Leão holds a commanding position in the Federal District governor race as the incumbent seeking re-election, with recent Datafolha polling showing her at 37% when including all names or 42% in a scenario without José Roberto Arruda. The Tribunal Superior Eleitoral's September 24 ruling confirmed Arruda's ineligibility due to prior convictions for administrative improbity, removing a leading rival and prompting some party realignments toward Leão. Traders price her at 94% amid this consolidation of center-right support and limited gains by challengers such as Leandro Grass. Late-breaking developments, including shifts in voter turnout, debate performances, or unforeseen legal or health events before the October vote, remain the primary factors that could still alter the outcome.