Bia Kicis leads the implied probability for second place in the Distrito Federal Senate race, reflecting recent polling trends where she has gained ground through strong second-preference support. Multiple surveys from late September, including Quaest and Correio/Opinião, show Michelle Bolsonaro maintaining a clear lead for one seat at 22-26%, while Leila do Vôlei, Erika Kokay, and Bia Kicis remain tightly grouped for the second vacancy within the margin of error. Bia has posted notable increases in combined first- and second-choice mentions and leads outright in some second-vote breakdowns. The October 4 first-round vote features two seats, with voters selecting up to two candidates; the PL slate of Bia and Michelle Bolsonaro operates as a coordinated ticket, though recent TRE-DF rulings suspended certain Bia campaign insertions over limits on supporter appearances. Other registered candidates trail significantly in all published data.