Recent polling from Quaest, Datafolha, and Correio/Opinião shows Michelle Bolsonaro maintaining a clear lead for one Federal District Senate seat at 22-26%, while the contest for second place remains tightly bunched among Leila do Vôlei (17-19%), Bia Kicis (15%), and Erika Kokay (13-15%), all within margins of error. Bia Kicis has gained ground in the latest surveys, narrowing the gap through PL party coordination with Michelle Bolsonaro and Flávio Bolsonaro's support. Leila do Vôlei and Erika Kokay draw backing aligned with President Lula's coalition. A recent TRE-DF ruling limiting Bia Kicis campaign ads featuring Michelle Bolsonaro highlights regulatory constraints on joint promotion ahead of the October 4 vote, where each elector selects two senators. Trader consensus on Bia Kicis for second place reflects her upward polling trajectory and party machinery in a multi-candidate field.