Incumbent Adama Barrow leads trader pricing in the December 5, 2026 Gambian presidential election at 71.5 percent, reflecting incumbency advantages, coalition alliances with smaller parties, and a fragmented opposition field. Nominations opened November 3–14 with 27 aspirants filing, including Barrow’s NPP on November 10 and Ousainou Darboe’s UDP the day prior, while the voter register was finalized at 1.146 million. Recent August 2026 polling showed Barrow at 32 percent, Darboe at 25 percent and Talib Ahmed Bensouda at 19 percent with 17 percent undecided, underscoring a tighter race than 2021 but one where opposition splits across UDP-led and other coalitions limit any single challenger’s path. Lower pricing on Darboe (23 percent) and others such as Bakary K. Badjie, Bensouda and Essa Faal tracks their regional bases and limited national consolidation ahead of the campaign period and single-round vote.