Recent polling shows Republican support among Black voters ranging from single digits to low twenties in 2026 midterm generic ballot surveys, with Pew Research reporting 8% preference for GOP House candidates and other trackers like Rasmussen and Echelon Insights placing it near 19-23%. Trader prices cluster tightly across 8-18%+ bins because economic pressures—including elevated Black unemployment, inflation, and energy costs—have eroded earlier 2024 gains, while policy actions such as DEI rollbacks and voting district rulings add headwinds. Persistent structural factors, including working-class voter realignment and party identification data showing 14% Republican lean, keep the range competitive. Late-cycle economic data releases, candidate messaging on affordability, or turnout patterns in key states could separate the leading outcomes before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated12–13% 46%
14–15% 43%
8–9% 42%
10–11% 42%
NEW
NEW
Nov 6, 2026
12–13%
46%
14–15%
43%
8–9%
42%
10–11%
42%
16–17%
42%
<8%
41%
18%+
41%
12–13% 46%
14–15% 43%
8–9% 42%
10–11% 42%
NEW
NEW
Nov 6, 2026
12–13%
$0 Vol.
46%
14–15%
$0 Vol.
43%
8–9%
$0 Vol.
42%
10–11%
$0 Vol.
42%
16–17%
$0 Vol.
42%
<8%
$0 Vol.
41%
18%+
$0 Vol.
41%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Recent polling shows Republican support among Black voters ranging from single digits to low twenties in 2026 midterm generic ballot surveys, with Pew Research reporting 8% preference for GOP House candidates and other trackers like Rasmussen and Echelon Insights placing it near 19-23%. Trader prices cluster tightly across 8-18%+ bins because economic pressures—including elevated Black unemployment, inflation, and energy costs—have eroded earlier 2024 gains, while policy actions such as DEI rollbacks and voting district rulings add headwinds. Persistent structural factors, including working-class voter realignment and party identification data showing 14% Republican lean, keep the range competitive. Late-cycle economic data releases, candidate messaging on affordability, or turnout patterns in key states could separate the leading outcomes before November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Recent polling shows Republican support among Black voters ranging from single digits to low twenties in 2026 midterm generic ballot surveys, with Pew Research reporting 8% preference for GOP House candidates and other trackers like Rasmussen and Echelon Insights placing it near 19-23%. Trader prices cluster tightly across 8-18%+ bins because economic pressures—including elevated Black unemployment, inflation, and energy costs—have eroded earlier 2024 gains, while policy actions such as DEI rollbacks and voting district rulings add headwinds. Persistent structural factors, including working-class voter realignment and party identification data showing 14% Republican lean, keep the range competitive. Late-cycle economic data releases, candidate messaging on affordability, or turnout patterns in key states could separate the leading outcomes before November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling shows Republican support among Black voters ranging from single digits to low twenties in 2026 midterm generic ballot surveys, with Pew Research reporting 8% preference for GOP House candidates and other trackers like Rasmussen and Echelon Insights placing it near 19-23%. Trader prices cluster tightly across 8-18%+ bins because economic pressures—including elevated Black unemployment, inflation, and energy costs—have eroded earlier 2024 gains, while policy actions such as DEI rollbacks and voting district rulings add headwinds. Persistent structural factors, including working-class voter realignment and party identification data showing 14% Republican lean, keep the range competitive. Late-cycle economic data releases, candidate messaging on affordability, or turnout patterns in key states could separate the leading outcomes before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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