xAI has not released Grok 5 as of August 2026, with repeated delays shifting targets from Q1 and Q2 windows to a confirmed plan for before year-end. The 6-trillion-parameter Mixture-of-Experts large language model continues training on the expanded Colossus 2 gigawatt-scale cluster in Memphis, while xAI instead shipped Grok 4.5 in July and 4.6 in August—iterative updates optimized for coding, agentic tasks, and competitive parity with Anthropic’s Claude releases. Musk highlighted integration of roughly 25 years of SpaceX data during the company’s August earnings call, underscoring enterprise and multimodal ambitions amid a crowded frontier AI race. Traders are watching for any Q3 or Q4 announcements that could resolve the market before additional point releases further delay the flagship.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Dec 31, 2026
August 31
1%
October 31
57%
November 30
51%
December 31
67%
$6,150 Vol.
August 31
$2,906 Vol.
1%
October 31
$10 Vol.
57%
November 30
$0 Vol.
51%
December 31
$1,711 Vol.
67%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI has not released Grok 5 as of August 2026, with repeated delays shifting targets from Q1 and Q2 windows to a confirmed plan for before year-end. The 6-trillion-parameter Mixture-of-Experts large language model continues training on the expanded Colossus 2 gigawatt-scale cluster in Memphis, while xAI instead shipped Grok 4.5 in July and 4.6 in August—iterative updates optimized for coding, agentic tasks, and competitive parity with Anthropic’s Claude releases. Musk highlighted integration of roughly 25 years of SpaceX data during the company’s August earnings call, underscoring enterprise and multimodal ambitions amid a crowded frontier AI race. Traders are watching for any Q3 or Q4 announcements that could resolve the market before additional point releases further delay the flagship.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 10, 2026, 6:20 PM ET
Volume
$6,150End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 10, 2026, 6:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI has not released Grok 5 as of August 2026, with repeated delays shifting targets from Q1 and Q2 windows to a confirmed plan for before year-end. The 6-trillion-parameter Mixture-of-Experts large language model continues training on the expanded Colossus 2 gigawatt-scale cluster in Memphis, while xAI instead shipped Grok 4.5 in July and 4.6 in August—iterative updates optimized for coding, agentic tasks, and competitive parity with Anthropic’s Claude releases. Musk highlighted integration of roughly 25 years of SpaceX data during the company’s August earnings call, underscoring enterprise and multimodal ambitions amid a crowded frontier AI race. Traders are watching for any Q3 or Q4 announcements that could resolve the market before additional point releases further delay the flagship.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$6,150End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 10, 2026, 6:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...xAI has not released Grok 5 as of August 2026, with repeated delays shifting targets from Q1 and Q2 windows to a confirmed plan for before year-end. The 6-trillion-parameter Mixture-of-Experts large language model continues training on the expanded Colossus 2 gigawatt-scale cluster in Memphis, while xAI instead shipped Grok 4.5 in July and 4.6 in August—iterative updates optimized for coding, agentic tasks, and competitive parity with Anthropic’s Claude releases. Musk highlighted integration of roughly 25 years of SpaceX data during the company’s August earnings call, underscoring enterprise and multimodal ambitions amid a crowded frontier AI race. Traders are watching for any Q3 or Q4 announcements that could resolve the market before additional point releases further delay the flagship.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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