**Trader consensus in the Hawaii governor election turnout market centers on the 370K-430K range, reflecting a non-competitive race between Democratic incumbent Josh Green and Republican challenger Gary Cordery.** The solidly Democratic contest, rated safe D by multiple forecasters, has produced limited statewide enthusiasm, as seen in the August 2026 primary's roughly 280,000 ballots and 33% turnout. Historical precedent from the 2022 midterm general election (approximately 413,000-420,000 votes) anchors the leading brackets, while Hawaii's high mail-in participation and absence of a presidential contest support expectations near or modestly below that baseline. Recent primary results and low Oahu engagement reinforce the tight positioning between the two leading outcomes, with separation likely hinging on any late-cycle developments that increase or suppress down-ballot interest before November 3.