A strengthening super El Niño, already producing record sea-surface temperature anomalies exceeding 3°C in the Niño 3.4 region, is driving elevated baseline sea levels along the San Diego coast through multiple Kelvin waves. These coastally trapped pulses of warm water, tracked by NOAA and Scripps researchers, are expected to raise local water levels by 6–12 inches or more starting in early October and persisting through winter into spring 2027. This temporary lift compounds long-term sea-level rise and aligns with peak king tides near Thanksgiving, Christmas, and late January, increasing the likelihood of record high water levels when combined with El Niño-enhanced wave energy or storms. NOAA tide gauges already indicate high-water conditions, with ongoing model updates and coastal surveys providing key resolution data.
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