Official Turkish Meteorological Service guidance and ensemble models indicate a peak of 23–24°C for Ankara on September 26 under partly cloudy skies with light northeasterly flow and minimal moisture. International guidance from sources such as the Met Office and ECMWF runs cluster slightly cooler near 21–22°C, creating the narrow spread between those two outcomes that together exceed 90% market-implied probability. Recent surface observations show daytime maxima 1–2°C below seasonal norms amid stable high pressure, while diurnal heating under broken cloud cover and dew-point depressions near 10°C limit further warming. Final resolution will hinge on the 12–15 UTC observation window; any late-day clearing or model bias toward stronger subsidence could push readings toward the upper end of the favored range.