Recent official forecasts and real-time observations from Beijing meteorological stations point to a daily maximum near 28°C, driven by mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions, light northwest winds, and afternoon heating under typical late-September solar angles. Model consensus from sources such as GFS shows temperatures peaking in the late afternoon before any evening cooling or scattered showers develop, aligning closely with historical climatological averages for the date. This strong data convergence underpins the dominant market-implied probability. The outcome could shift only if unforecasted convective activity or thicker cloud cover arrives earlier, suppressing the peak by several degrees.