**Trader consensus at 100% for a 24°C high on September 26 reflects official observations from Argentina’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN), which recorded a daily maximum of 24°C in Buenos Aires under mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions with easterly winds.** Hourly data showed temperatures climbing to approximately 22–23°C in the afternoon before cooling, consistent with springtime patterns where daytime highs in late September often range 18–23°C. Model guidance and pre-event forecasts had centered near 22°C, yet the final verified peak aligned precisely with the 24°C threshold that dominates the market. This near-certainty stems from the high reliability of SMN surface observations for resolution criteria. The only realistic challenges would involve an unexpected post-event data revision or station-specific measurement anomaly, both of which are rare given standard quality controls and cross-verification with nearby stations.