Recent official and ensemble forecasts for Guangzhou on September 26 indicate a peak temperature of 35–36 °C under partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds, and minimal precipitation risk, supporting the market’s heaviest trading on those two outcomes. Subtropical high pressure and above-average sea-surface temperatures in the northern South China Sea have maintained daytime heating rates near late-summer norms, with model runs showing only modest spread between 34 °C and 37 °C. Historical September 26 maxima average 31 °C and have reached 36.6 °C, so current guidance sits near the upper climatological tail without crossing into record territory. Updated model cycles tomorrow morning and any late-day convective development remain the principal near-term variables that could shift implied probabilities before the market resolves.