Recent forecast model consensus from sources like GFS points to a cooler, more humid air mass arriving over Madrid on September 28, with southerly flow, extensive cloud cover, and scattered showers expected to cap daytime heating. This setup favors maximum temperatures of 23–26 °C, aligning with the market’s leading implied probabilities for 25 °C and 26 °C. The shift follows today’s warmer, sunnier conditions near 31 °C, consistent with typical late-September variability and below the long-term average high of 23.6 °C only modestly. Official updates from European and U.S. models over the next 24 hours will refine the exact peak and any localized convective enhancement before resolution.