**Verified observations from official Canadian weather stations established a daily maximum of 23°C in Toronto on September 26, 2026, driving the market-implied probability for that outcome to 100%.** Environment Canada data from Pearson International Airport and City Centre Airport recorded afternoon peaks reaching 22–23°C under partly sunny to clear conditions with northerly winds, consistent with pre-event forecasts calling for a high near 21–22°C. This aligns with late-September climatology for the region, where average highs hover around 19–20°C but can exceed that with favorable subsidence and light winds. The overwhelming consensus reflects real-time station reports and post-event verification rather than models alone. Only a significant revision in official records—such as an undetected higher reading at an approved site or data correction—could realistically alter the outcome, though current multi-station agreement makes that improbable.