Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS show a trough crossing central Europe, advecting cooler maritime air and increasing mid-level cloud cover over Warsaw by July 5, which limits surface insolation and caps maximum temperatures near 20–21 °C. Scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms expected during peak heating hours further suppress readings by enhancing evaporative cooling and reducing the diurnal temperature range. These conditions deviate from the July climatological average high of ~24 °C, explaining why 20 °C and 21 °C hold the highest implied probabilities while 22 °C+ remain low-single-digit outcomes. Minor model spread in precipitation timing and boundary-layer mixing creates the tight clustering around 19–21 °C.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Warsaw on July 5?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on July 5?
20°C 45%
21°C 28%
19°C 14.2%
22°C 12%
最新
$24,571 交易量
最新
$24,571 交易量
2026-07-05
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
14%
20°C
45%
21°C
28%
22°C
12%
23°C
2%
24°C or higher
1%
20°C 45%
21°C 28%
19°C 14.2%
22°C 12%
最新
$24,571 交易量
最新
$24,571 交易量
2026-07-05
14°C or below
$597 交易量
<1%
15°C
$593 交易量
<1%
16°C
$797 交易量
<1%
17°C
$651 交易量
<1%
18°C
$2,527 交易量
1%
19°C
$2,556 交易量
14%
20°C
$2,975 交易量
45%
21°C
$8,821 交易量
28%
22°C
$1,991 交易量
12%
23°C
$1,544 交易量
2%
24°C or higher
$1,519 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS show a trough crossing central Europe, advecting cooler maritime air and increasing mid-level cloud cover over Warsaw by July 5, which limits surface insolation and caps maximum temperatures near 20–21 °C. Scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms expected during peak heating hours further suppress readings by enhancing evaporative cooling and reducing the diurnal temperature range. These conditions deviate from the July climatological average high of ~24 °C, explaining why 20 °C and 21 °C hold the highest implied probabilities while 22 °C+ remain low-single-digit outcomes. Minor model spread in precipitation timing and boundary-layer mixing creates the tight clustering around 19–21 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jul 3, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
交易量
$24,571结束日期
2026-07-05市场开放时间
Jul 3, 2026, 12:02 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS show a trough crossing central Europe, advecting cooler maritime air and increasing mid-level cloud cover over Warsaw by July 5, which limits surface insolation and caps maximum temperatures near 20–21 °C. Scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms expected during peak heating hours further suppress readings by enhancing evaporative cooling and reducing the diurnal temperature range. These conditions deviate from the July climatological average high of ~24 °C, explaining why 20 °C and 21 °C hold the highest implied probabilities while 22 °C+ remain low-single-digit outcomes. Minor model spread in precipitation timing and boundary-layer mixing creates the tight clustering around 19–21 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$24,571结束日期
2026-07-05市场开放时间
Jul 3, 2026, 12:02 AM ETLatest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS show a trough crossing central Europe, advecting cooler maritime air and increasing mid-level cloud cover over Warsaw by July 5, which limits surface insolation and caps maximum temperatures near 20–21 °C. Scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms expected during peak heating hours further suppress readings by enhancing evaporative cooling and reducing the diurnal temperature range. These conditions deviate from the July climatological average high of ~24 °C, explaining why 20 °C and 21 °C hold the highest implied probabilities while 22 °C+ remain low-single-digit outcomes. Minor model spread in precipitation timing and boundary-layer mixing creates the tight clustering around 19–21 °C.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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