Recent Central Weather Administration forecasts and ensemble models point to afternoon highs of 34–35°C in Taipei on July 4, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those outcomes. Subtropical summer conditions, elevated urban heat-island effects, and typical diurnal convection with afternoon showers introduce variability that can suppress peak temperatures by 1–2°C depending on cloud timing and coverage. Recent weeks of above-average warmth across northern Taiwan reinforce trader expectations for values near the upper end of climatological norms (32–33°C), while model spread on precipitation leaves room for 36°C if skies clear earlier. New forecast updates and observational data over the next 48 hours remain the key variables for resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Taipei on July 4?
Highest temperature in Taipei on July 4?
35°C 32%
34°C 29%
36°C 18%
33°C 13%
最新
$13,421 交易量
最新
$13,421 交易量
2026-07-04
28°C or below
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
1%
31°C
1%
32°C
2%
33°C
13%
34°C
29%
35°C
32%
36°C
18%
37°C
7%
38°C or higher
2%
35°C 32%
34°C 29%
36°C 18%
33°C 13%
最新
$13,421 交易量
最新
$13,421 交易量
2026-07-04
28°C or below
$419 交易量
<1%
29°C
$1,067 交易量
<1%
30°C
$518 交易量
1%
31°C
$267 交易量
1%
32°C
$247 交易量
2%
33°C
$295 交易量
13%
34°C
$1,472 交易量
29%
35°C
$5,193 交易量
32%
36°C
$2,518 交易量
18%
37°C
$535 交易量
7%
38°C or higher
$890 交易量
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Central Weather Administration forecasts and ensemble models point to afternoon highs of 34–35°C in Taipei on July 4, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those outcomes. Subtropical summer conditions, elevated urban heat-island effects, and typical diurnal convection with afternoon showers introduce variability that can suppress peak temperatures by 1–2°C depending on cloud timing and coverage. Recent weeks of above-average warmth across northern Taiwan reinforce trader expectations for values near the upper end of climatological norms (32–33°C), while model spread on precipitation leaves room for 36°C if skies clear earlier. New forecast updates and observational data over the next 48 hours remain the key variables for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jul 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
交易量
$13,421结束日期
2026-07-04市场开放时间
Jul 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Central Weather Administration forecasts and ensemble models point to afternoon highs of 34–35°C in Taipei on July 4, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those outcomes. Subtropical summer conditions, elevated urban heat-island effects, and typical diurnal convection with afternoon showers introduce variability that can suppress peak temperatures by 1–2°C depending on cloud timing and coverage. Recent weeks of above-average warmth across northern Taiwan reinforce trader expectations for values near the upper end of climatological norms (32–33°C), while model spread on precipitation leaves room for 36°C if skies clear earlier. New forecast updates and observational data over the next 48 hours remain the key variables for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$13,421结束日期
2026-07-04市场开放时间
Jul 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETRecent Central Weather Administration forecasts and ensemble models point to afternoon highs of 34–35°C in Taipei on July 4, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those outcomes. Subtropical summer conditions, elevated urban heat-island effects, and typical diurnal convection with afternoon showers introduce variability that can suppress peak temperatures by 1–2°C depending on cloud timing and coverage. Recent weeks of above-average warmth across northern Taiwan reinforce trader expectations for values near the upper end of climatological norms (32–33°C), while model spread on precipitation leaves room for 36°C if skies clear earlier. New forecast updates and observational data over the next 48 hours remain the key variables for resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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