Iran maintains firm military and administrative control over Hormuz Island, a key observation and defensive outpost at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz, despite months of US-Iran clashes over regional shipping. Iranian forces have used the island alongside nearby sites like Qeshm and Larak to monitor traffic and enforce preferred routes, while pursuing diplomatic talks with Oman on formal strait management and revenue-sharing. Recent escalations, including Iranian strikes on commercial vessels and US retaliatory attacks on missile storage, radar, and coastal targets, have not produced any territorial shifts on Hormuz itself. Shipping transits remain sharply reduced from pre-conflict levels amid ongoing enforcement attempts and warnings, with no scheduled events or confirmed operations indicating imminent change in island sovereignty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$71,211 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
1%
$71,211 Vol.
September 30
$933 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains firm military and administrative control over Hormuz Island, a key observation and defensive outpost at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz, despite months of US-Iran clashes over regional shipping. Iranian forces have used the island alongside nearby sites like Qeshm and Larak to monitor traffic and enforce preferred routes, while pursuing diplomatic talks with Oman on formal strait management and revenue-sharing. Recent escalations, including Iranian strikes on commercial vessels and US retaliatory attacks on missile storage, radar, and coastal targets, have not produced any territorial shifts on Hormuz itself. Shipping transits remain sharply reduced from pre-conflict levels amid ongoing enforcement attempts and warnings, with no scheduled events or confirmed operations indicating imminent change in island sovereignty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 11:06 AM ET
Volume
$71,211End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 11:06 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains firm military and administrative control over Hormuz Island, a key observation and defensive outpost at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz, despite months of US-Iran clashes over regional shipping. Iranian forces have used the island alongside nearby sites like Qeshm and Larak to monitor traffic and enforce preferred routes, while pursuing diplomatic talks with Oman on formal strait management and revenue-sharing. Recent escalations, including Iranian strikes on commercial vessels and US retaliatory attacks on missile storage, radar, and coastal targets, have not produced any territorial shifts on Hormuz itself. Shipping transits remain sharply reduced from pre-conflict levels amid ongoing enforcement attempts and warnings, with no scheduled events or confirmed operations indicating imminent change in island sovereignty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$71,211End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 11:06 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran maintains firm military and administrative control over Hormuz Island, a key observation and defensive outpost at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz, despite months of US-Iran clashes over regional shipping. Iranian forces have used the island alongside nearby sites like Qeshm and Larak to monitor traffic and enforce preferred routes, while pursuing diplomatic talks with Oman on formal strait management and revenue-sharing. Recent escalations, including Iranian strikes on commercial vessels and US retaliatory attacks on missile storage, radar, and coastal targets, have not produced any territorial shifts on Hormuz itself. Shipping transits remain sharply reduced from pre-conflict levels amid ongoing enforcement attempts and warnings, with no scheduled events or confirmed operations indicating imminent change in island sovereignty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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